![]() ![]() Is it a massive deja vu, "anchorage heuristics" type of cognitive bias or failure of man's rationality? Moreover we know the cases that people are afraid of using correct approach even if presented to them - they are afraid that other will not believe them.Īssuming we know how to overcome the above difficulties, how much would you pay for solving this problem? Word "possible" includes already all the rest above, except "impossible" which is not in the scale. Then we could reply to potential "expert" or "consultant":ġ) How you arrange or sort, differentiate, priotitize risk based on that method?Ģ) What is the probability that you make good or bad decision based on that scale? Or if you at the end manually select risks which comes from above scoring, what for then you need this scoring? Will you include information coming from such rating as valueable or supportive in making important decisions? If you are not going to use information coming from the above scoring during decision making why you are losing time on it? Why are you allocating corporate resources on that?Īnother big mistake present in probability scale of risk matrices, especially when using: "almost certain", "likely", "possible", "unlikely", "rare". You can colour it differently but scoring still remains. 1 x 5 = 5 x 1 but one risk may mean disaster or bankruptcy and another may mean "just typical cost of business". Risk represented as multiplication of probability and impact means: low probability and high impact may be the same as high probability and low impact: If we got 5 x 5 scale matrix, then 1 (is low impact or probability) and 5 (is high impact or probability). It is still implemented worldwide in Risk Management, BCM, ERM, IT, IT Security, Operational Risk and related information systems as part of calculation of risk level. Under umbrella of being "simplified method"in fact this scoring complicates assessment of risk and blurs its perception.which is risky isn't it? ![]() Hubbard "Failure of Risk Management" book on that is my favourite one) on limitations and errors on using risk matrices by multiplying probability and impact - this kind of risk scoring is still alive and goes well. Despite many books, articles, papers (Douglas W. ![]()
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